Today's "Street Chatter" from Schaeffer's Investment Research focuses on: Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL), Given Imaging (NASDAQ:GIVN), and Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK). Street Chatter" is a report that analyzes three newsworthy stocks that are generating a lot of attention on Internet message boards. "Street Chatter" is published on www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research.
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Street Chatter:
1. Last week, I received a shiny new pink iPod mini from my husband for my 30th birthday. In tangentially related news, UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Banc of America securities all issued positive comments on Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL) today, citing hopeful projections for iPod sales this holiday season. The brokerage firms all lifted earnings estimates and/or price targets on the computer and digital music company.
AAPL has certainly enjoyed an impressive turnaround in 2004, more than tripling in value and notching a new four-and-a-half year high. What's more, the stock is only about eight percent shy of its all-time peak, achieved in March 2000. Over the past several weeks, technical support has presented itself in the form of the security's five-week moving average as the equity has spiked dramatically higher.
Options players remain skeptical of the company, despite continually improving sales and an all-pervading U2 endorsement. Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AAPL has been advancing since late August and now stands at 0.74, higher than 86 percent of the past year's worth of readings. Schaeffer's Sentiment PowerTools (http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/powertoolsobs) indicates that past SOIR readings between the 83rd and 88th percentiles have preceded slight outperformance from the underlying shares. The tide could be turning, however, as in today's action options traders are gnawing down on AAPL options, especially in the December and January call series. A handful of strikes, including the January 75 and 80 calls, are seeing volume that vastly outweighs standing open interest, suggesting a number of new positions that could come to light tomorrow morning. On the put side, the only strike seeing much love is the out-of-the-money December 65 strike, where about 16,000 contracts have traded on open interest of only about 3,000 contracts.
Meanwhile, short interest dropped by 17.5 percent last month to 12.5 million shares. The subsequent short-interest ratio stands at just over one day to cover. Wall Street is rather optimistic, handing AAPL 10 "buy" ratings, only seven "holds," and zero outright "sell" designations.
Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of AAPL Since December 2003 With Five-Week and 10-Week Moving Averages: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11864.
2. Given Imaging (NASDAQ:GIVN) manufactures medical equipment for the gastroenterology market. Today, the company received the official heads-up from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to introduce an enhanced version of its "camera pill," an oral alternative to endoscopies. Through this capsule medication, doctors are able to receive pictures of patients' esophagus and intestines.
Investors may have been expecting this news from the FDA, as the stock gapped higher by just six percent. While this move took the stock above the 31 level and atop its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, GIVN continues to mosey beneath the obstacles of its 10-month trendline and below its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. These intermediate-term trendlines recently completed a bearish crossover, which is a discouraging technical sign.
On the options front, calls and puts are near parity, as evidenced by the equity's SOIR of 0.98. This reading, which spiked higher in late September but settled slightly lower after options expiration on November 19, is higher than 86 percent of the past year's worth of SOIR data. Short sellers have taken note of the recent technical weakness in GIVN and increased the level of short interest on the shares by 27 percent last month to 3.6 million. The resultant short-interest ratio stands at 7.2 times the stock's average daily volume, or more than 40 percent of the available float. Wall Street is split on the issue, with two "buy" ratings and two "holds," according to Zacks (www.Zacks.com).
Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of GIVN Since January 2004 With 10-Week and 20-Week Moving Averages: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11864.
3. Online retailer Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK) boasted this morning that its website saw a 31-percent increase in visitors over the post-Thanksgiving weekend compared to the weekend of November 19 and 20. In addition, OSTK officials noted that November 26 was the biggest sales day in the company's history, as bargain hunters sought out holiday-season purchases among the website's apparel and jewelry offerings.
OSTK shares have reached to a new all-time high today. The stock has rallied since early September, and has recently taken out short-term technical resistance at the 60 level. Last week, OSTK shares benefited from a retest of support near their 10-week moving average.
Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of OSTK Since August 2004 With 10-Week Moving Average: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11864.
This technical strength, coupled with encouraging signs from the sentiment backdrop, has given OSTK a Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard (www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=UC04*W&PAGE=1) rating of 8 (out of a possible 10). SOIR for OSTK currently stands at 1.21, with total put open interest continuing to outweigh total call open interest. This indicator is settling from a recent peak of 1.76, but remains above the technically and historically significant 1.08 mark. In other sentiment news, short interest spiked 17 percent higher for OSTK last month, bringing the stock's short-interest ratio to 5.8 days to cover and comprising nearly 43 percent of the equity's total float available for trading.
Click the following link to see the Equity Scorecard for OSTK: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11864.
The scorecard indicates that the only concern for OSTK (from our unique contrarian perspective) is the analyst ratings landscape, as six of the eight analysts currently following the security have already named it a "buy." All is not lost from this perspective, however, as there is still ample room for positive initiations on the retailer.
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About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com)
Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method.