Today's "Street Chatter" from Schaeffer's Investment Research focuses on: Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), New York Times (NYSE:NYT), and Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS). "Street Chatter" is a report that analyzes three newsworthy stocks that are generating a lot of attention on Internet message boards. "Street Chatter" is published on www.SchaeffersResearch.com - the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research.
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Street Chatter:
1. According to Hoover's, Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) is the leading consumer electronics retailing establishment in America, boasting more than 600 stores in the U.S. and Canada. This morning, BBY unleashed its sales results for the third quarter. Same-store sales rose by 3.2 percent, stopping short of the First Call estimate for a 3.6-percent increase. Revenue increased 10.3 percent during the three-month period. Looking to the future, BBY officials target a fourth-quarter same-store sales rise of three to five percent and expect third-quarter earnings, due December 15, of 41-47 cents per share.
BBY notched a new annual high on November 18 and has since shuffled downward, digesting recent gains. This recent pullback has dropped the equity beneath its 10-week moving average and its 10-day and 20-day trendlines, which have now completed a bearish crossover. The shares are, however, trading above potential support at the 56 threshold. This area acted as resistance for the stock in April 2000, March 2002, and earlier this year, however it may now help prop up the weakening security.
In the front three months worth of options, calls and puts are fairly near parity, as evidenced by the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.02. The indicator, which has been slowly advancing since early October, is among the top one quarter of the past year's worth of SOIR data for the retailer. This suggests a fair amount of skepticism (or outright pessimism) on the part of the speculative crowd. In today's market action, the December 55 put has seen almost 7,000 contacts change hands. This activity could translate into new positions tomorrow, or these could be liquidations of some of the 15,600 open puts already in residence at this out-of-the-money strike.
Other sentiment indicators are mixed. Wall Street takes a positive view of the shares, with 15 "buy" ratings, six "holds," and a lone "sell" nod (for a buy percentage of over 70 percent). On the other hand, shorted BBY shares account for more than five percent of the equity's float. It would take nearly a week of trading at the stock's average daily volume to close all of the 14.2 million BBY shares sold short.
Click the following link to see the Daily Chart of BBY Since April 2004 With 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11904.
2. The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT) publishes its eponymous newspaper in the Big Apple along with The Boston Globe and more than 15 other papers in the U.S. This morning, NYT had some news of its own, as it reported that fourth-quarter earnings, which are scheduled to be reported on January 12, are expected to fall within a range of 69 and 73 cents per share. Wall Street was targeting per-share results of 75 cents. For the full year, NYT expects earnings of $1.90-$1.93 compared to Street estimates of $1.96. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to benefit to the tune of 40-45 cents per share thanks to the sale of the firm's headquarters building. Next year, the company plans to begin booking employee stock options as an expense. Following this same philosophy in 2004, earnings would have been trimmed by about 42 cents per share.
The stock gapped three percent lower today on this less-than-stellar news, and is now situated beneath its 10-week and 20-week moving averages after fighting back above these trendlines just a month ago.
Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of NYT Since May 2004 With 10-Week and 20-Week Moving Averages: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11904.
A weakening technical picture, especially from a long-term view, coupled with disconcerting sentiment readings, has given NYT a Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard ranking of 4.5 (out of a possible 10.0). The scorecard is available on Schaeffer's Gold (www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=UC04*W&PAGE=1). Add in a few fundamental questions, and NYT doesn't look like the safest bet at this juncture. Options players are keeping the bullish fires burning for NYT. The stock's SOIR plunged after October options expiration and now weighs in at 0.07, a new annual low for the reading. Analysts are a little more wary of the security, according to the latest data from Zacks (www.Zacks.com). Of the dozen analysts following the stock, four have named it a "buy," while eight list it as a "hold." The fact that there is nary a "sell" to be found suggests that downgrades could still be in the equity's future.
Click the following link to see the Equity Scorecard for NYT: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11904.
3. Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is having a strong fourth quarter, with positive earnings results, vastly improved ratings at its troubled ABC Networks division, and a solid uptrend that has been in place since late August. Last night after the closing bell, DIS officials chose to spread the wealth among its shareholders, boosting its annual dividend payout to 23 cents a share from 21 cents. Shareholders of record by December 10 will collect the payment on January 6.
The stock's recent uptrend has enjoyed solid momentum along support from its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. DIS shares are now attempting to overtake resistance at the 27.50 level, the site of the stock's mid-February high. A solid break through this ceiling could send the shares rallying to levels not seen since early 2001.
Click the following link to see the Weekly Chart of DIS Since December 2003 With 10-Week and 20-Week Moving Averages: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11904.
The SOIR for DIS has been on the upswing since late February, despite positive indications from the fundamental and technical landscapes. The sentiment measure now stands at 0.80, in the top 20 percent of the past year's worth of SOIR readings. Combine this with relatively hefty short-interest figures (42.8 million shares and a short-interest ratio of 6.5 days to cover), and a Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard reading of 7.0 emerges. Wall Street's split view of the stock (11 "buys" and 10 "holds") could also turn higher in the near term, especially if DIS treks into new-annual-high territory.
Click the following link to see the Equity Scorecard for DIS: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=11904.
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About Schaeffer's Investment Research (www.SchaeffersResearch.com)
Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology: http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com/method.