The markets are poised to break out of current trading patterns soon, predicts the December issue of the H.S. Dent Forecast newsletter. According to Harry S. Dent, Jr., president and founder of the H. S. Dent Foundation, even though the market is approaching trading levels achieved in February 2004 indicating stocks are getting overbought, the major markets look like they are starting to head up. The question is whether they will reach previous levels, or break out to higher trading ranges. Dent believes the Dow will pull back to 10,350 to 10,400 which could be the last chance to buy near 10,000 before the rally starts in early 2005.
After nearly a year of downward trends, H.S. Dent indicators show the U.S. economy is getting stronger across the board, although growth will slow from January into July 2005. Strong earnings, high productivity rates, lower oil prices and flat long-term interest rates will continue to fuel steady, but more moderate economic growth. "As growth rates slow, we should get another buying opportunity before the bull market starts in 2005," said Dent. "With the major markets converging just below the January 2004 trading range, stock prices are ready to break into the next bubble boom."
Historically, the market seems to play dead and move sideways for a year or more before entering the next strong bull market, Dent believes. This pattern occurred in the late 1920s and again in the 1990s. "We think the Dow is likely to break out of the current trading range between December 2004 and January 2005. Depending on trading patterns, investors could see targets ranging from 32,000 to 30,000 on the Dow," added Dent.
Investors should continue to buy on corrections, urges Dent. "For those who haven't already become fully invested on the buys signals in August and October, this may be the last advantageous buy signal," Dent warns. "We think the slowing of growth forecast by the Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index might be revealing one last substantial setback by the markets early next year. If that occurs, investors will have the last great buying opportunity for some time. However, the market is clearly ready to breakout of current trading ranges; don't bank on the market to decline by much."
About H.S. Dent Publishing:
H.S. Dent Publishing (www.hsdent.com) of Allen, Texas, helps people understand change and prepare for its arrival through a variety of Dent publications, including the monthly H.S. Dent Forecast. The Dent methodology, which is based on the study of demographics, or the study of whole populations and their spending habits, takes financial forecasting out of the world of theory and into the realm of real-world consumer behavior allowing investors to make intelligent and informed economic decisions about their future.