The U.S. economy continues to show expansion with gains in the manufacturing and service sectors, according to the latest economic study produced by the National Association of Credit Management (NACM).
The Combined Credit Manager’s Index (CMI) showed an increase for July, with all three indices increasing on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. According to commentary and analysis provided by Euler Hermes ACI Chief Economist Dan North, the CMI indicates continued economic expansion and had few “dramatic swings” in July with the exception of a 4.6% increase in favorable components for the manufacturing sector. “The survey once again describes an economy which has had enough strength and momentum to overcome the obstacles of a tightening Fed, inflation fears, high energy prices, a weak stock market, and a wobbly consumer,” said North. These challenges continue to cloud the nation’s future economic picture, particularly the uncertainty of whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
Manufacturing Sector
The manufacturing sector index for July rose on a seasonally adjusted basis 0.9%. The rise was driven mostly by an increase in the sales component of 5.8% and an increase in the amount of credit extended of 9.6%. Both of these top-line oriented indices bode well for future growth.
Services Sector
The July service sector index rose only 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. There were no particularly notable movements which would suggest a significant shift or pattern, but six of the ten components rose.
July 2006 vs. July 2005
On a year over year basis, the combined CMI rose 1.3%, while the Manufacturing sector rose 0.8% and the Services sector rose 1.8%. Eight out of ten components for the combined CMI rose, while seven of ten rose in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Overall, the indices reflect the strong economy of the past several quarters.
The CMI, a monthly survey of the business economy from the standpoint of commercial credit and collections, was launched in January 2003 to provide financial analysts with another strong economic indicator. A complete view of the index can be viewed online at www.nacm.org.
Euler Hermes ACI Chief Economist Dan North uses macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to develop, price, and manage Euler Hermes ACI’s risk portfolio. His economic analysis most recently has been featured on CNBC and in Barron’s, Forbes, and the New York Times. North has an MBA from Wharton with a major in Decision Science.
Euler Hermes ACI is North America’s oldest and largest provider of trade credit insurance and risk mitigation solutions. For more information about Euler Hermes ACI, visit www.eulerhermes.com/usa.
Euler Hermes is the worldwide leader in credit insurance and one of the leaders in bonding and guarantees. With 5,400 employees in 45 countries, Euler Hermes offers a complete range of services for the management of customer receivables. The group posted a 2 billion euro turnover in 2005. The North American subsidiary (Euler Hermes ACI) is headquartered in Owings Mills, MD. For more information visit www.eulerhermes.com/usa.
Euler Hermes, a subsidiary of AGF and a member of Allianz, is listed on Euronext Paris. Standard & Poor’s rates the group and its principal credit insurance subsidiaries AA-.
Press Contact:
Rick Ostopowicz
Euler Hermes ACI Public Relations and Communications Specialist
Phone: (410) 753-0652
These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words ‘may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue’ and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro-U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.
The matters discussed herein may also involve risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Allianz AG’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Group assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein.