Sweden – which has been a constitutional monarchy since 1809 - is ranked as having the best creativity in Europe for business and is a talent magnet for the world’s most educated workers. The book The Flight of the Creative Class by Richard Florida includes an index to measure the kind of creativity most useful to business – talent, technology and flexibility – and found Sweden to be the number one spot in Europe and the world.
The top ten countries, in descending order, are: Sweden, Japan, Finland, the US, Switzerland, Denmark, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway and Germany. If your image of Sweden and Denmark is still that of a socialistic, slow growth, bureaucratic economy - you need to join me as I lead a small group of individual investors to visit to both Stockholm as well as Copenhagen, Denmark during the third week of June 2007.
This tour, organized by luxury travel company Abercrombie & Kent, will include visits to major companies like Ericsson and Volvo, the Copenhagen and Stockholm stock exchanges, briefings by me and a leading investment firm on opportunities in both countries as well as major historical and cultural sites in both countries. We will stay at two 5-star Leading Hotels of the World: the Grand Hotel in Stockholm and the D’Angleterre in Copenhagen.
The Kingdom of Sweden, with a population of 9 million and area exceeding that of California, has many attributes which investors should appreciate. King Carl Gustav (no relation) has reigned since 1973 over a well educated citizenry. It is blessed with ample natural resources like iron ore, copper, gold, timber, lead, zinc and hydro power but 70% of its economy is driven by services. Sweden’s per capita GDP is $30,000 and it has a balanced budget surplus, current account surplus, opted out of euro in 2003.
While Sweden's industry is primarily in private hands, the newly elected center-right coalition led by Mr. Fredrik Reinfeldt is moving ahead with promises to privatize up to 47 companies that may collectively fetch as much as $100 billion. This, in addition to Sweden’s fiscal discipline, tradition of craftsmanship and ample natural resources, adds to the allure of this market. The strength and stability of the Swedish Krona is another big attraction. The Swedish Riksbank - the oldest central bank in the world - this week raised its benchmark interest rate to 3.25% and is currently focusing on price stability with an inflation target of 2%.
We have had the Swedish exchange-traded fund or ETF (EWD) and from time to time the Swedish Krona currency ETF (FXS) in some portfolios for some time with positive results. The Sweden ETF is up 37.6% over the last 12 months. Ericsson accounts for 21% of the basket with quality companies like Svenska, Sandvik, Volvo and Atlas Copco all top ten holdings that readers might be familiar with. Capital good, technology and banking each contribute about 20% of sector exposure for good balance and diversification. Plus, while the main Copenhagen and Swiss indexes are trading at 19.5 earnings, Sweden is trading at 14 times earnings. Here are some point and figure charts from my partner Don Smith for EWD and FXS plus some commentary on where these ETFs might go from here.
A quick review of EWD paints a story of demand. As you can clearly see from the above point & figure chart all but just a few months since the inception of this ETF have been in demand. A hundred shares of this ETF would have cost you $2,296 back on January 3, 2006. Today that investment would be worth $3,285 for a growth of 43.07%.
FXS is a new issue that seeks to track the price of the Swedish Krona, net of trust expenses. The green shade line above represents the cost basis of one share at the issue date of June 6, 2006. One obvious pattern of this FXS is its volatility. There have been 17 reversals in nine short months with an overall gain of 4.28%.
Carl is President of the global investment advisory firm Chartwell Partners. He is a columnist on global investing with Forbes and writes the “Global Gambits” column for Forbes Asia and is also the editor of the Chartwell ETF Global Advisor investment newsletter and the http://www.ChartwellETFadvisor.com advisory website. He is the author of “Think Global, Grow Rich” and “The New Global ETF Investor” and, during the administration of George H.W. Bush, served on the Executive Board of Directors of the Asian Development Bank in Manila, Philippines.
Carl was a Vice President and opened Asia-Pacific markets for the investment bank Robert W. Baird & Company and a global ETF specialist with the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS).