Martin Weiss, Ph.D. examines the flex-fuel engine and the economic impact it is having on Brazil. In this issue of Money and Markets, Dr. Weiss discusses what is driving the success of the flex-fuel engine and the political and geographic implications of the motor's reach.
The flex engine is already in 90% of all cars and light-commercial vehicles sold in Brazil; and by next year, it will be almost impossible to find a new car without one. Right now, Brazil's the world's most advanced country in flex-fuel engines and ethanol infrastructure. But the auto industry is global in all aspects. In fact, just a few days ago, President Bush touted the benefits of flex-fuel vehicles. He urged Congress to move expeditiously on legislation mandating the consumption of 35 billion gallons of alternative fuels by 2017. And Detroit auto execs committed to doubling production of flex-fuel engines to reduce gas consumption by 20% in ten years," says Martin Weiss, Ph.D.
Weiss said the barriers to ethanol are likely to come down far more swiftly than most people believe possible. Just last week, Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, met with President Bush to negotiate tariff reductions. Three weeks earlier, President Bush was in São Paulo with Lula, signing onto a joint venture to export ethanol mills to Central American and the Caribbean, which, in turn, could export ethanol to the U.S.
And just this past Friday the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), representing 2,500 of the world's scientists, shocked the world with new warnings of warming scenarios. According to Weiss, the U.S. representatives at IPCC, previously among the most resistant, are becoming one of the most aggressive in insisting on harsh global warming warnings -- with the tacit backing of the Bush administration.
Bottom line: Ethanol is coming to gas stations. Flex-engines will eventually be in every car in America. Our potentially fatal reliance on crude oil -- especially from the Persian Gulf and from Venezuela -- could be history, says Weiss.
If Brazil can handle the entire complex -- from the fuel distribution systems to the manufacture of flex engines, from the biofuel fields to the biofuel pumps -- can the United States? The only thing still missing is the political will and the investment dollars. But that's changing quickly, Weiss says.
"The flex-engine-and-ethanol boom alone justifies investing in Brazil as a whole. Plus there has been a boom in resources (exported in huge quantities to China and Japan), a boom in aircraft manufacturing (the world's third largest), and a continuing surge in Brazil's currency, the real, which just hit its highest level of the decade last week. The most convenient vehicle: EWZ, the easy-to-buy exchange-traded fund that's tied to Brazil's leading stock index, Bovespa. Flex engines are just beginning to spread to the rest of the world. Ethanol is just at the very first stage of becoming a global commodity. And Brazil is the far-away leader in both technologies," explains Dr. Weiss.
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