Earnings season kicks into high gear this week, and perhaps no other sector will be in the spotlight more than the Internet sector, as Yahoo, eBay, and Google all report earnings this week. Yahoo and eBAY represent more than 55 percent of the Internet HOLDRs Trust, so they will weigh heavily on the ETF this week. Google isn't a component of the Internet HOLDRs Trust, but it has influenced the entire sector with its earnings reports since going public in 2004.
According to Rick Pendergraft, Chief Investment Strategist at Investorsdailyedge.com, "The sentiment picture is mixed toward these three stocks. Google is seeing excessive optimism, with a short interest ratio below one and every single covering analyst rating it a "buy." eBAY also has some optimism directed its way, but not to the degree that Google does. Yahoo actually has a certain amount of pessimism, with more analysts rating the stock a "hold" than a "buy." None of the three stocks has a very high short interest ratio, so the possibility of a short covering rally is very small. All three get an "A" rating on the Investor's Business Daily fundamental ranking, so they seem to be even in that regard."
Here is Pendergraft's outlook during earnings week:
--Yahoo looks the best from a technical standpoint; it is not overbought and has been trending higher over the past six months. Given that the sentiment is somewhat bearish and the technicals look good, Yahoo looks like the best bullish candidate of the three.
--eBAY sits in the middle of the three in terms of sentiment, and such is the case for technical factors. The stock has moved higher over the last few months, but it seems to be running into resistance at the 34 level. This area acted as resistance in November and again in February. Until eBAY is able to break above this resistance, it looks like a "hold."
--Google is the most loved stock in the U.S. markets, based on the number of analysts covering it and the fact that all rank it a "buy." This doesn't leave much room for upgrades. Add to the over-the-top bullish sentiment the fact that the stock has been trending lower over the past four months, Google could be heading for a "sell" into earnings.
Three different stocks in the Internet sector and yet all have different outlooks.
Pendergraft adds, "Using fundamental analysis alone, the three appear to be fairly equal, but when you combine the fundamentals with technical analysis and sentiment analysis, one looks like a buy, one looks like a hold, and one looks like a sell. The earnings releases this week will tell us whether or not we were right."
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About Rick Pendergraft
After a ten year career in banking, Rick Pendergraft pursued trading full-time. Prior to joining Investor's Daily Edge, Rick worked at Schaeffer's Investment Research under Bernie Schaeffer, one of the top options traders in the world. Rick received the"Top Trader" award. Widely recognized as a market expert, Rick has been frequently quoted by Reuters, BusinessWeek, Forbes, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Washington Post. Rick's primary focus is on identifying short and intermediate term rising and falling trends in the major market sectors. His analysis is based on technical factors along with indicators of market sentiment. Rick is currently the Editor-in-Chief of The ETF Options Trader.
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