I discovered Adam Hamilton in late 2002 and since have read his weekly essays without fail every week. I have incorporated his theory on market cycles into my trading strategy. His research has shown that throughout history markets tend to move in great cycles, long bulls followed by long bears. These cycles are around 34 years long - resulting in a 17 year up cycle followed by a 17 year down cycle. Obviously no market goes straight up or down, so within those major cycles are minor counter-cycles to keep everyone on their toes. Our last major up cycle ran from 1982 to 2000. So, we are now 7 years into the down cycle. If you entered the market in 2003 - it doesn’t feel like a down cycle. However, if you bought tech stocks in 2000 you are still down 50%.
Why am I mentioned this? If the average investor gets serious about investing around 30 and retires at 65, they only have 35 years to really put their money to work. So, if you buy into Wall Street’s buy and hold mantra and time it right at the end of 35 years you will have absolutely nothing to show for your efforts. All of the gains of the first 17 years will be given away in the next 17.
I have said all of that to say if you have any desire to become financial free - independent thinking is a requirement. It’s time to throw out many of the truism you have readily accepted especially if it was recommended by Wall Street. Like buy and hold for the long run. Or if you bought a stock at $30 and now it’s trading at $20 buy more. Obviously if you liked it at $30 - you must really like it at $20. Or I’m too busy to manage my finances - I will turn it over to a professional. That one drives me nuts. Number 2 of my “5 Not So Easy Steps to Financial Freedom” is shift. Until you are ready to start thinking differently, make sure that your boss likes you :)
About the Author
Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence as a full-time trader on his on account. He has also established a financial education company, The Time & Money Group, to encourage others to pursue financial freedom and is publisher of the company's blog "Breaking the Shackles of the 9 to 5." His mantra is "Why trade time for money ... when you can have both."
http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com/blog
Make sure to read one of Dawson's most popular articles: "Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap"