It’s a pick-your-crisis investment world. So many things can go wrong. But it doesn’t have to paralyze you. You shouldn’t have to accept bigger risks. But can you really turn your back on all these “bombs” and live to tell about it?

• Cutting off Iran’s oil supply if it continues on its current path
• Another major terrorist event on our soil. We’ve been lucky so far, but how long can it last?
• An antagonistic turn in our relations with China. Aside from human rights and geopolitical competition, the potential for economic conflict is getting bigger. Just last week, China blew up at the U.S. because it had the audacity to ask the WTO to do something about China’s abysmal record on piracy and copyright protection.
• The spreading of the subprime contagion. It’s already leaking into the next level of risky mortgages.
• The unexpected slowdown of capital spending. With consumer spending teetering, that’s the last thing the economy needs.
• The Fed painting itself into a corner. Inflation just isn’t slowing down as much as the Fed expected it would by now. But raising rates in a slowing economy is extremely problematic.
• The falling dollar. It’s making our equity markets very unattractive for everybody outside the U.S.
• Middle East turmoil. Iraq hangs over us like a dark cloud.

It’s a war the U.S. can’t afford … and can’t afford to lose. The market fundamentals have gotten so bad that one investor, Ken Murray - with a reputation as one of the UK’s most successful investment trust managers - is heading to the hills, according to the Financial Times: “It is time to get out of the market and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect the market to fall by more than 20 per cent in a very short space of time.”

Ken manages Blue Planet, a specialist investor in the financial sector with $350 million in assets under management. He ran three of the four best performing financial funds in the UK last year, according to figures from Bloomberg.

But you can dodge all these bullets.

While there are so many things that could break one way or the other, let’s put them aside for the moment and instead think of what we are sure of … what we can’t avoid … no matter what happens. Here are four megatrends you can count on happening:

1. India and China are on their way to becoming major economic forces. We may not be able to foresee every setback along the way, but we know it’s a matter of when, not if.

2. Getting the metals and fossil fuels we increasingly need out of the ground is becoming harder, riskier, and more expensive. For example, technology allows us to drill down and sideways longer than ever before. But it requires a bigger commitment of time and money. And drilling is taking place in increasingly difficult places without the needed infrastructure or political stability always in place.

3. The U.S. will continue to be a major economic power for a very long time. China can crow about its $1 trillion dollar-plus foreign exchange. Europe can crow about exceeding the U.S. in the total value of its listed equities. Big deal. Despite its many problems, America’s financial clout and technological leadership remain unsurpassed.

4. Gold’s permanent value. Paper currencies come and go. Gold outlasts them all. It may have its ups and downs, but gold has, is, and always will be a recognized store of value for everybody everywhere.

These four things are staring us in the face. And maybe that’s the problem. We can get so obsessed about short-term trends and current events that we forget to see the forest for the trees.

Why not let these four megatrends be the bedrock of your long-term investments? There are not trends that will make you a quick buck. But where there’s uncertainty, they can give your investments direction … not for months, but for years and, yes, even decades ahead.

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